Within the margin of error, he has placed 1st seven times
Since the start of February, public opinion polls conducted on the favorability of the presidential candidates showed that Yoon Seok-youl, the candidate from the People Power Party (PPP), was most favored compared to Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea (DP), except for one survey. In particular, the gap was found to be greater in the automatic response (ARS)-type poll than telephone surveys conducted where people spoke directly to someone.
According to a survey commissioned by UPI News to Research View conducted for the past one to three days, Yoon was viewed favorably by 46.0 percent, beating Lee, who polled at 38.0 percent. People Party’s presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo polled at 8.0 percent and Justice Party’s presidential candidate Sim Sang-jung at 3.0 percent.
According to the survey commissioned by Herald Economy to KSOI conducted on the 2nd and 3rd, Yoon polled at 45.7 percent, Lee at 40.0 percent, Ahn at 6.9 percent, and Sim at 2.7 percent. During the same period, Prime Economy commissioned PNR to conduct surveys, and the results showed that Yoon polled at 44.3 percent, Lee at 38.0 percent, Ahn at 7.4 percent, and Sim at 2.9 percent.
The gap between Yoon and Lee is 5.7 percent to 8.0 percent. Considering that the general margin of error is at ±3.1 percentage point and even if the margin of error is calculated, Yoon is ahead in all polls.
This trend has continued to show in public opinion polls conducted since the 3rd.
According to a survey commissioned to Realmeter by Newsis, Yoon polled at 43.3 percent, Lee at 41.8 percent, Ahn at 7.5 percent, and Sim at 2.6 percent. In this survey, the gap between Yoon and Lee was relatively small at 1.5 percent. However, the survey commissioned by New Daily to PNR showed that Yoon polled at 48.0 percent, Lee at 37.7 percent—showing that the gap between the two candidates is at 10.3 percent.
Other surveys also showed that the gap between Yoon and Lee was 6.2 percent (commissioned by Hankyoreh to K Stat Research), 5.1 percent (commissioned by CBS to Southern Post), and 4.7 percent (commissioned by Dong-A Ilbo to Research And Research).
There was also one survey that showed that Lee was polling ahead of Yoon. According to the survey commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo to Embrain Public conducted on the 4th and 5th, Yoon polled at 36.8 percent, Lee at 38.1 percent, showing that Lee was polling ahead by 1.3 percentage point.
A survey released on the 7th also showed that Yoon generally led the polls to Lee. According to the results of the survey commissioned by News 1 to Membrane conducted for the past five to six days, Yoon polled at 36.6 percent, Lee at 35.7 percent, Ahn at 10.2 percent, and Sim at 3.9 percent. According to the survey commissioned by TBS to KSOI and conducted on the 4th and 5th, Yoon polled at 44.6 percent and Lee at 38.4 percent with the gap between the two candidates at 6.2 percent. Ahn fell to 8.3 percent, while Sim polled at 3.4 percent.
Most of the polls show that Yoon is ahead of Lee, but some say that these public opinion polls do not properly reflect the actual gap.
However, looking at last year’s April 7th by-election for the mayoral seat in Seoul, as it got closer to the election, the results from public opinion polls were close to the actual election results. According to the survey conducted jointly by the three major broadcasting networks (KBS, MBC, SBS) on April 2nd, just before public opinion polls were restricted, PPP’s candidate Oh Se-hoon polled at 50.5 percent, and DP’s candidate Park Young-sun polled at 28.2 percent. The gap was 22.2 percent.
According to the actual election result, Park won 38.18 percent of the vote, while Oh won with 57.5 percent of the vote, showing a gap of almost 18.32 percent. Although the gap narrowed by 4 percentage points compared to the public opinion poll, the result of the polls was closest to the actual votes in recent election-related polls.
Public opinion polls will be restricted beginning March 2nd, a week before the March 9th presidential election. Until then, people will look out for how much Yoon will widen the gap from Lee.
Original article: https://www.jayupress.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=2240
