Little progress expected as North Korea refuses talks
President Moon Jae-in’s plan to declare an end to the Korean War was one of the hottest topics over the Christmas weekend in the South Korean media. His plan was also harshly criticized by a former commander of the U.S. Forces in South Korea, revealing that Washington and Seoul are still not on the same page on his initiative.
The Moon Jae-in administration has been pushing to hold a virtual meeting with North Korea by the end of this year but it failed to prepare one, according to the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper on Tuesday. The South Korean government planned to hold a summit ahead of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics in February and declare an end to the Korean War. However, it appears that this will be unlikely, as North Korea does not appear to be interested in holding talks with the South.
In the meantime, the Japanese media outlet NHK cited a Japanese government official as saying that the United States, South Korea, and Japan are going to hold trilateral defense ministerial talks between top military officials. The NHK reported that the meeting is expected to be held in Hawaii in mid-January, and it will coordinate on how to address the North Korea denuclearization issue and Pyongyang’s continued ballistic missile tests.
The South Korean Ministry of Defense confirmed that they are in discussions to hold a meeting. South Korean media outlets speculated as to what the three countries are going to discuss, as President Moon Jae-in appears set on his goal of declaring an end to the Korean War before his term ends in May. Media outlets cited a government source saying, “The defense ministry meetings between the three countries tend to focus on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and I think South Korea will emphasize our will to declare an end to the war.”
However, the former commander of the US Forces Korea (USFK) warned of the danger of prematurely declaring an end to the war.
Gen. Robert Abrams, former commander of USFK, said in an interview with Voice of America (VOA) on December 25, “I am very unclear what it is that we are trying to accomplish by declaring an end of the war.” He served as commander of USFK, ROK-US Combined Forces Command, and UN Command from November 2018 until July 2021. His comments were as follows:
“Any premature declaration of an end of the war, you open up a possibility for people who will then claim if the war is ended then it is time for us to revisit some of the UN Security Council resolutions from summer of 1950. Then it will become what we call a slippery slope, there will be nations that would say if the war ended and the UN Command was established to fight the war then we don’t need the UN Command anymore. You don’t have the UN Command where there are only signatories to the Armistice Agreement, then we don’t have the Armistice Agreement anymore. So, we end up backing our way into a peace agreement or settlement. And we haven’t made one inch of progress on denuclearization. This has been an issue between the United States and the Republic of Korea for over 30 years, what comes first? Peace? Or denuclearization? It wasn’t much of an issue 30 years ago as it is today. But today, North Korea has a credible nuclear threat.”
Gen. Abrams also was cautious on the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) of the allied forces. He suggested that the South Korean military might not have enough military capability just yet.
Gen. Abrams argued that two conditions need to be met to transfer OPCON.
“Condition 1 is the Republic of Korea must acquire the critical military capabilities to lead the combined defense. In addition, there is a couple of additional tasks to condition 1, which is certifying future Combined Forces Command led by (a) South Korean four-star general of leading the combined command. Condition 2 is the Republic of Korea must acquire a strategic strike capability and develop and field a Korean integrated air missile defense capability. That one, frankly, we’re furthest behind on.”
Major South Korean conservative news outlets reported Gen. Abrams’s comments in depth and ran editorials encouraging the Moon administration to listen to the former top military commander, who led the combined forces in South Korea.
The South Korean Defense Ministry publicly took issue with Abrams’ comments. Boo Seung-chan, the vice spokesperson of the ministry, said that Gen. Abrams’ comments are just “his personal opinion” and that he is “not sure why he made such comments.”
The South Korean liberal daily Hankyoreh ran an editorial titled, “Arrogant comments made by former USFK commander who does not care about the alliance.” The newspaper argued that Gen. Abrams prioritized U.S. strategic benefits while ignoring South Korea. It argued that the United States seems to think it needs South Korean forces amid the U.S.-China rivalry. The newspaper also ran an article titled, “For whom do former USFK commanders speak for?” arguing that “OPCON transfer should be seen not as a question of capability, but a matter of choice.”
Meanwhile, the South Korean state-run think tank Korea Institute for National Unification released a report on Monday that stated the “public’s expectations and support for the end-of-war declaration were confirmed.” It said that 70 percent of the supporters of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) approved of declaring an end to the Korean War at the upcoming Beijing Olympics.
The survey had other results that appeared contradictory. According to the institute, 72.6 percent of participants expected that inter-Korean relations will stay the same over the next five years. Support for South Korea obtaining nuclear weapons has steadily increased, reaching 71.3 percent.
The institute said the need for the ROK-US alliance was confirmed again, as 93 percent of participants said the alliance was necessary. About 90 percent of participants said that U.S. forces need to be stationed in Korea. The survey showed that 61 percent said the presence of U.S. forces will be necessary even after Korean unification.
