Dr. Kim Kwang-in, Ph.D. in political science and lecturer at Konkuk University, former reporter at Yonhap and Chosun Ilbo.
1. The Reality of North Korea’s Illegal Weapons Trade Despite Pressure from the International Community (20 October 2020)
According to a Voice of America (VOA) report in October, Denmark and the United Kingdom co-produced a documentary miniseries called “The Mole: Undercover in North Korea.” It was a well-known fact that North Korea was selling its weapons overseas, but it was difficult to find actual evidence of how these illegal activities were occurring. The producer of the documentary shows evidence of North Korea violating United Nations resolutions through a secret agent inside North Korea. At one point, the film talks about North Korean officials discussing ways to purchase an island in Lake Victoria, Africa, to use it as a secret underground factory to manufacture weapons and drugs.
There are two purposes of selling weapons for North Korea. One is that the business is the best way to gain foreign currency for North Korea. The other is to find ways to get rid of the large stocks of weapons that have been stored and unused, as the country has not been involved in a major war for a long time.
Many people wondered whether North Korea has the capability to export its weapons. In the 1980s, North Korea gained quite a large amount of foreign currency through this business. During the Iran-Iraq War, which started in 1980 and lasted for 8 years, North Korea sold weapons to Tehran and gained a billion dollars per year. At that time, North Korea copied the Soviet-made missile system and sold its own Scud missiles. They calculated the cost as $10,000 per kilometer. North Korea’s Scud missile had the range of 400 to 800 kilometers, and people assumed that it was a good business for Pyongyang.
This type of business is extremely risky, but North Korea did not care about the UN sanctions because it could gain a lot of foreign currency revenue. This also means that the country’s foreign currency reserves are very low, so that it cannot even consider the sanctions imposed by the international community. They had no choice but to use whatever means of maintaining their system and surviving. Some of the examples of North Korea’s illegal trade include ship-to-ship transfers in the open sea and transferring cargo from Sinuiju to Dandong in China by truck or train. North Korean officials often hide such activities by portraying them as smuggling done by the private sector, which makes it difficult for the international community to catch them red-handed.
The documentary film’s producers not only exposed various truths but also plan to raise the sanctions violation issue with the United Nations and the European Union (EU). However, the South Korean government, which is the party directly affected by this, has not responded at all. Looking at its recent stances, it is highly likely that the government will not mention anything about North Korea’s sanctions violation in the future, as well.
2. The Number of COVID-19 Patients in North Korea is 0? (3 November 2020)
According to a recent report released by the World Health Organization (WHO), North Korea reported that approximately 10,000 people were tested and that it has had zero confirmed cases of COVID-19. Interestingly, this is the number that North Korea publicly announced both domestically and internationally.
It is not something new to see North Korea bluffing by saying they have nothing to envy and are perfect when it comes to all human nature. However, the report that said there were no confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 should be seen as evidence that it cannot even estimate how many patients there are due to the horrible medical situation. Because of this, North Korea does not even have COVID-19 test kits in the country.
There are multiple factors to consider when it comes to North Korea’s medical system. There are some who argues that there were more people who died of epidemics than those who died of famine during the so-called Arduous March in the 1990s, where at least 3 million people died. This argument is persuasive, since death due to famine is mostly caused by poor immune system or malnutrition.
North Korea is also a totalitarian regime. The government often orders many people to gather in one place for various reasons. Under its surveillance system, at least two people should team up to move around. This means it is possible for its already vulnerable medical environment to become even worse. The best option North Korea has is forcing people who have minor symptoms of fever or colds to quarantine.
North Korea also announced that it will ban students from coming to school last fall. During the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, the government said it will postpone the opening of schools. However, it decided to close schools as a last resort after coming to the decision that it cannot allow people to gather together when it does not even have test kits. North Korea announced that teachers will visit students’ homes to teach instead. However, whether such measures will be effective is still unclear, because visiting students’ homes is physically impossible in a situation like this. The Worker’s Party of Korea recommended conducting lectures through video, but the country does not have the capability to produce and distribute these video lectures. So, this is another bluff by North Korea. It was reported that North Korea will distribute lectures by storing them on USBs, but only a few elites in Pyongyang will receive the benefits from this.
Nonetheless, North Korea argues that it accomplished tremendous success within a month of its so-called “80-day battle” to fight the Coronavirus. North Korea said it developed a disinfectant for the virus 20 days after it began its 80-day battle. It is highly likely that North Korean officials secured some alcohol and repackaged it as disinfectants. North Korea’s policies like the 80-day battle put a lot of pressure on its people to achieve some sort of accomplishment. This creates situations like them portraying the development of a disinfectant in 20 days as an accomplishment, and this is hard not to laugh at.
The secret behind North Korea’s bluffing is that it is quite afraid of the pandemic. The remarkable record of “zero confirmed patients” can be evidence that North Korea is very nervous and believes that publicly announcing the actual number of patients could threaten the regime’s stability.
3. Kim Jong-un Seeks to Strengthen His Regime with an Idolized Diet (10 November 2020)
Recently, some countries, including South Korea, dispatched diplomats to pressure President Donald Trump to accept the fact that he lost the election while the United States was in chaos amounting to civil war due to claims of election fraud. On the other hand, dictators and leaders of communist regimes around the world, including Kim Jong-un, who apparently seemed to hope Joe Biden would win, kept silent.
Historically speaking, communist totalitarian regimes react slowly when something big happens to major superpowers. This can also be interpreted that they are monitoring such situations very carefully. Kim Jong-un was not an exception to this. He reacted three days after both Trump and Obama were confirmed as president-elect by speaking ill of them.
This time, the South Korean government is moving rapidly and sensitively. It appears that the government decided to move preemptively to push ahead with its own policies like reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
However, the U.S. Democratic Party was not that flexible when it came to North Korea. Additionally, the United States is not run by its president alone. Three branches exist to check and balance each other. This is a society that is moved by order and tradition, and these facts cannot be ignored. In the latest U.S. elections, the Republican Party did well in both the House and Senate. This means it will be difficult to expect that the new administration can drastically reverse the North Korean policies put into place by the Trump administration.
The biggest difference between Trump and his predecessors is how they use the summit process. For over 30 years, the North Korean policies of Democrats, including Biden, were basically focused on details from the working level. Trump boldly demolished this principle and met with Kim Jong-un face-to-face to reach an agreement. It appears that this kind of ‘top-down’ approach made Kim Jong-un more interested in talking. Kim had the opportunity to meet Trump directly to make a deal. This is why Kim is very careful about Trump. If Trump loses, Kim must change many of his policies on the United States, which creates a large risk burden internally.
North Korea often provoked the United States through various measures, including missile launches, after an election and before the inauguration. If North Korea were to repeat its provocation, there is a high chance that it will use the Pukkuksong-4, a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). To do so, North Korea needs to develop a nuclear-powered submarine to carry the missile and sail in the Pacific Ocean. However, they do not have the technology to build one and cannot produce the nuclear fuel needed to operate a submarine.
When looking at the two countries relations over the past 4 years, North Korea might not provoke the United States as it did before, if Trump were to win. Trump seems kind toward Kim Jong-un, but he never gave Kim anything he wanted. Kim is under heavy pressure, and it appears that Trump winning a second term would help prevent another North Korean provocation.
This is why South Korea’s self-declared conservative intellectuals should be careful with their analysis. They should not focus on Trump’s joy and grief. Instead, they should understand what kind of practical effect Trump had on North Korea, and how Trump is moving forward with his plans.
