April 15 was the birth anniversary of North Korea’s founder Kim, Il-sung, known in the North as the Day of the Sun, a major national holiday. However, his grandson and current leader Kim, Jong-un did not pay a visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where his grandfather’s body is housed. Moreover, he did not appear in public for two consecutive weeks, raising speculation, in light of his family history of myocardial infarction, that he may have suffered a stroke or been infected with the Corona 19 virus. Assuming Kim, Jong-un’s health problems or death, the succession issue has recently been a focus of attention in the media. Even if Kim, Jong-un is alive at this time, he is expected to have health problems in the future due to obesity and lack of exercise considering his height of 5 feet and 5 inches and weight of more than 285 pounds. I would therefore like to predict what will happen to the succession structure if a power vacuum arises due to the death of Kim, Jong-un.
North Korea is a de facto monarchical system that combines divine and royal powers. Thus, due to the fact that Kim, Il-sung’s fabricated anti-Japanese revolutionary activities on Mount Baekdu have been transformed into “truth,” a person with a surname other than “Kim” can not be part of Kim, Il-sung’s so-called “Baekdu revolutionary lineage,” and cannot be designated as a successor. Kim, Jong-un, a third-generation descendant of this lineage, has two sons and one daughter, all of whom are young. Since his eldest son is only 12 years old, none of them are yet old enough to assume power.
Kim, Yo-jong, Kim, Jong-un’s younger sister who has been assisting him since he took power in 2012, is drawing the most attention as one who could be his successor as leader. Kim, Yo-jong, aged 32, has been appearing at almost all major state events, which has made her a de facto representative of her brother and given her a “number two” status under him. Kim, Yo-jung has been more than Kim, Jong-un’s chief of staff since she was first caught on camera during their father’s funeral in December, 2011. She was rapidly promoted to a high-profile position close to Kim, Jong-un by becoming a senior official of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) in May, 2016 and an alternate member of the Politburo in October, 2017.
In December, 2019, North Korea announced that Kim, Yo-jong had been appointed as a party first deputy director at the party’s plenary session (the seventh and fifth sessions), but did not specifically mention the details regarding her position. Before her appointment, she served as a deputy director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD), a major North Korean ministry, and is believed to serve as a deputy director of the Organization and Guidance Department, the ruling WPK’s command department that controls all personnel matters of the WPK. North Korea has left the director’s post vacant since it dismissed Lee, Man-gun, the former director of the Organization and Guidance Department, in late February. Given her recent series of statements toward South Korea and the U.S., Kim, Yo-jong appears to be exercising substantial power, including the director’s role in that department. Kim, Yo-jong has served as a protocol secretary at every major event attended by Kim, Jong-un. However, she was dropped as an alternate member of the Politburo in April last year to hold her responsible for the failed “Hanoi negotiations,” with the U.S, but she returned on April 11 this year.
Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reported not long ago that the WPK Central Committee had made an internal decision to “focus all authority on Kim, Yo-jong” in case of unexpected situations such as Kim, Jong-un’s death. But this was a false report, as it is completely unimaginable to call for a successor when a young leader exists under a monarchical regime like North Korea. Even so, she is known to be trusted by her elder brother in terms of her enthusiasm, judgment and worldly skills in addition to her background as a member of the Baekdu bloodline. Kim, Jong-il, the father of Kim, Jong-un, is said to have once told Kim, Yo-jong that she would have inherited power if she had had mustache. Some say that North Korea is a male-dominated society, so no matter how capable Kim, Yo-jong may be, she would be unsuitable as a successor and only be able to serve as an assistant to a leader.
However, given that Kim, Yong-nam, the North’s nominal head of state born in 1928, was behaving with great courtesy toward his granddaughter-aged Kim, Yo-jong during his visit to the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics held in South Korea, there is no reason she could not take a leadership role. as a woman, because she is part of the Baekdu bloodline. In South Korea, some people were skeptical about former President Park, Geun-hye because she also was a female, but she had no gender-related problems with exercising authority after taking office.
Another potential successor to Kim, Jong-un is his elder brother Kim, Jong-chol. Kim, Jong-chol is the eldest son born to Kim, Jong-il, and Ko, Yong-hee, a Korean-Japanese dancer. As a child, he studied together in Bern, Switzerland, with Kim, Jong-un and Kim, Yo-jong. Therefore, the three siblings are known to have deep trust in each other. Kim, Jong-chol, born in 1981, was disqualified by his father, Kim, Jong-il, because he said his son was “feminine,” “weak,” and “loves music.” However, if a powerful body like the Politburo were to appoint him as its leader, it could be a leadership system in which he was assisted by Kim, Yo-jong and Choe, Ryong-hae, the son of a famous partisan.
Another possible candidate is Kim, Pyong-il, the half-brother of Kim, Jong-il and uncle of Kim, Jong-un. In fact, he has been ostracized because he was of a collateral bloodline. So Kim traveled abroad for 40 years since 1979 and has served as ambassador to Finland, Poland and the Czech Republic after studying in Malta to learn English.
Kim, Pyong-il was summoned to North Korea last year by his nephew, Kim, Jong-un, due to fears he might stage a revolt, and is currently under house arrest in Pyongyang. Earlier, Kim, Kyong-jin, Kim, Pyong-il’s sister, was also called back to the North with her husband Kim, Kwang-sup, North Korea’s Ambassador to Austria. Kim, Jong-un has been thoroughly checking his perceived rivals, and this included the assassination of his half-brother Kim, Jong-nam in Malaysia three years ago.
Kim, Pyong-il has long been out of power since the Kim, Jong-il era, so it is unlikely that he will be named as successor, and he has no personal connections who would back his appointment. Oh, Jin-woo, a former partisan who was a minister of the People’s Armed Forces, once supported him, but he has long since passed away. His son, Oh, Il-jong, is currently not in a powerful position.
Kim, Pyong-il was born in 1954 and is 66 years old. He graduated from the Political and Military University and Kim Il-sung University. Age does not matter much in determining who will be the successor. If he becomes the successor, he will probably lead the North well considering his long experience as an ambassador and his military knowledge, but he is unlikely to be the successor.
Besides the Kims, Choe, Ryong-hae could be considered a potential successor. Choe is the second son of Choe, Hyun, who fought against Japan with Kim, Il-sung in the Chinese military’s Northeast Anti-Japanese Coalition. Choe, Hyun was five years older than Kim, Il-sung. After liberation, he returned to North Korea with Kim, Il-sung to assist him when the North Korean regime was founded, and served as the Minister of National Security.
Choe, Hyun was known to be ignorant, but he had strong loyalty to Kim, Il-sung. Like his father before him, Choe, Ryong-hae has served in key posts such as the director of the General Political Bureau of the People’s Army and the Organization and Guidance Department. Currently, he is a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s nominal head of state. He also plays a “number two” role, acting on behalf of Kim, Jong-un when he travels abroad. It will be difficult for Choe to become Kim’s successor because he is not from the Baekdu bloodline, but he could become a leader if a coup takes place or the Kim family disappears.
For the time being, therefore, Kim, Yo-jong is the most likely successor.
