While other age groups are decided, young voters are key swing demographic
A new survey showed that the voting rate in the upcoming March 9 presidential election will likely be the highest of recent years, and both the leftists and conservatives are calculating which side will benefit from the high turnout. Young voters are also emerging as the key battleground for both candidates.
According to Gallup Korea and the National Election Commission (NEC) on Thursday, 83 percent of survey respondents said they will definitely vote in this election. The NEC explained that the figure was the highest of all surveys conducted ahead of elections over the past 10 years.
In the NEC’s survey ahead of the 18th presidential election in 2012, 78.2 percent of respondents said they will vote no matter what. The figure for the 19th presidential election conducted after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye in 2017 was 82.8 percent. The actual turnout rate for those elections was 75.8 percent and 77.2 percent, respectively. The NEC’s surveys conducted ahead of the elections do not exactly match with the actual turnout rate but can still be useful to predict the rate in comparison to previous elections.
By age group, the percentage of people who said they will definitely vote was the lowest among those in their 20s at 66.4 percent, down 17.8 percentage points from the 84.2 percent recorded ahead of the previous presidential election in 2017. The figure for those in their 40s remained the same at 81.7 percent and the figures for all other age groups rose slightly. It rose the most among people over 70 to 90.7 percent, up 6.7 percentage points from 84 percent recorded in 2017. It was followed by people in their 60s at 89.8 percent, and those in their 50s at 87.2 percent. The survey showed that 84.1 percent of people in their 30s plan to vote in this election.
Lee Jae-myung, presidential candidate from the ruling Democratic Party (DP), and Yoon Seok-youl, presidential candidate from the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), had different thoughts on the latest survey. Both seemed to believe that the results favored themselves.
An official from Lee’s election team told the media that “we will try to raise the turnout rate for people in their 20s and 60s, who appear to be less supportive of us, by coming up with various election pledges targeting them.” The official added that the voters consider the competence of a candidate to be the most important factor in choosing a candidate and that the election team will continue to emphasize Lee’s competence and ability to put things into action.
An official from Yoon Seok-youl’s election team, on the other hand, told the media that they see there is a high chance of Yoon winning in all age groups except those in their 40s. “I think the election will be very favorable to Yoon if the turnout rate of people in their 20s, who think positively about Yoon, is above the 70 percent level.”
According to the survey, 40.5 percent of the respondents said personality, competence, and morality are the most important factors in choosing who to vote for. This was followed by policies and campaign promises (35.1 percent), affiliated political party (12.7 percent), experience in politics (5.3 percent), and how other people evaluate a certain candidate (2.9 percent).
One of the key differences from the survey conducted ahead of the 2017 presidential election is that the figure for personal factors dropped by 6.6 percentage points, while the figure for the affiliated party rose 8.7 percentage points.
Many political commentators believe that many other factors could affect the turnout rate. One is the recent surge in new daily Covid-19 cases. The number of new cases continues to break records and surpassed the 100,000 level for the first time as of Thursday evening.
An official from Yoon’s election team told the media that there are concerns that the elderly may decide not to vote due to Covid-19 worries. The official added that there are still many people who believe the early voting will be subject to manipulation, which would also lower the overall turnout rate if people who believe this do not vote on the election day.
According to the NEC’s survey, 27.4 percent of respondents said they will participate in early voting. The figure rose 10.3 percentage points from the previous presidential election. Among those who said they will participate in early voting, 44 percent said they will do so in order to do other things on election day. This was followed by people who said they have to work on election day (16.3 percent) those who cannot vote on election day for personal reasons (12.2 percent).
In general, a higher turnout rate helped the leftist camp and the conservative camp benefited when the turnout rate was low. Typically, the turnout rate was decided by people in their 20s and 30s, who are less interested in politics than older people, who are thought by some observers to be more likely to vote for conservatives.
However, the trend of lower turnout by people in their 20s and 30s has been changing rapidly. The turnout rate of people in their 20s rose from 46.6 percent in the 2007 presidential election to 69 percent in the 2012 presidential election and to 76.2 percent in the 2017 presidential election. The figure for those in their 30s rose from 55.1 percent to 70 percent and then 74.2 percent during the same period.
Currently, Lee’s core supporters are those in their 40s and 50s, while those for Yoon are people over 60. This is why many commentators believe that the young generation will cast the deciding votes.
Also, one of the interesting points in this election is that people in their 20s and 30s are the strongest believers that the administration needs to change. According to local pollster Kantar Korea last week, the figure for those who want a change in the administration was the highest among those in their 20s at 70.9 percent. 50.7 percent of people in their 30s also said they want such a change. This is why many commentators are closely looking into how the younger generation votes.
Meanwhile, the latest poll announced by South Korea’s three major broadcasting companies on Thursday showed that Yoon was leading Lee 39.2 percent to 35.2 percent. By age group, the approval ratings for Yoon was higher in people younger than 29 years old (Yoon 28.8 percent, Lee 21.6 percent), those in their 60s (Yoon 54.9 percent, Lee 31.6 percent), and those in their 70s (Yoon 60.2 percent, Lee 27.4 percent). Lee, on the other hand, led Yoon by 52.2 percent to 24.7 percent among people in their 40s.
