North Korea conducted a spate of missile launches testing various systems five times in 2022, so far. Kim Jong-un knows how to stir up a reaction. Just a few subtle words from the party about reconsidering the 2018 pause in nuclear and ICBM testing and pundits go out of their minds. They are ready to throw in the towel and declare U.S. policy a failure and provide sanctions relief to appease Kim. This reveals a lack of understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. While the North criticizes the U.S for its alleged hostile policy it is the Kim family regime that continues to demonstrate a real hostile policy toward the U.S. and South Korea.
Kim Jong-un is executing a political warfare strategy against the ROK, the U.S., and the international community, as well as domestically. It is also preparing its warfighting campaign to be able to attack South Korea. These two lines of effort are not mutually exclusive, they are in fact mutually supporting and reinforcing. The more capable military systems the regime possesses, the more likely it can negotiate from a perceived position of strength. These actions and negotiations can contribute to driving a wedge in the ROK/U.S. alliance to try to achieve one of the regime’s key objectives: to force U.S. forces from the peninsula. Kim is likely to use the Moon administration’s end of war declaration proposal to further this objective.
When the conditions are favorable to Kim Jong-un or if he is threatened and he feels he has no other options he may decide to execute his campaign plan to dominate the peninsula and ensure regime survival. The recently tested missile systems will make important contributions to warfighting when they are fielded. If the political warfare strategy is successful and U.S. forces are driven from the peninsula Kim Jong-un may assess he has the combat power to successfully conduct a deliberate attack of the South. Therefore, political warfare and warfighting strategies are inextricably linked.
A criticism of the Biden administration is that it has not sufficiently articulated its North Korea policy so that the press and public can adequately understand it, and it leads to assessments that disparage it for being “engagement only.” The administration never “named” the policy just as the Obama administration did not and that leads the press and pundits to reprise the idea of “strategic patience.”
A criticism of the press and pundits is that the blame seems to always be on whatever U.S. administration is in office while insufficient blame is placed on the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. Perhaps they take it for granted that “everyone” knows that the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the evilest mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. However, no one should take it for granted that people understand this. This is especially true among those pundits who call for maximum engagement (and appeasement) – they refuse to call out the regime’s evil nature and instead dream of making a diplomatic breakthrough through the lifting of sanctions.
We should also recall that during the Trump administration the U.S. set a very high red line for Kim – no nuclear tests and no ICBM testing. This has provided Kim freedom of action for anything below that. There were no significant responses to the sustained missile and rocket testing activity in 2019-2020 – with some 30 launches and tests. The ROK/U.S. alliance ceded the initiative to Kim so long as he did not test a nuclear weapon or ICBM. The alliance is now in a position of having to now find a way to lower that red line. It must begin with what we know of the Biden administration policy
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