Editor’s note:
The following article was written by Mr. Ri Jong-ho, a former top official at North Korea’s Office 39, the nerve center for managing the slush fund for the Kim family. Having defected from North Korea in 2014, he now lives in the US, writing and speaking about the Kim dictatorship. In this issue, he writes about Kim Jong-un and matters surrounding his health situation. He poses a fundamental problem with the next dynastic transfer of power much talked about in the press—who should succeed Kim Jong-un, his sister Kim Yo-jong or his uncle Kim Pyong-il. He argues that the Kim family dictatorship must end with Kim Jong-un and that a new leadership must emerge to lead North Korea toward open reform (perestroika). Further, he contends that the international community must provide help for the North Korean people, including the elites, to end the Kim dictatorship.
By: Ri Jong-ho
Where is Kim Jong-un? He seems to have disappeared into the fog after his last activity on April 11th, when he participated in a meeting at the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Central Committee of the Political Bureau with 27 members attending. Since then, several media outlets posted reports about his health conditions ranging from his heart surgery, coma, his vegetative state. Some even claim that Kim Jong-un is dead.
There is no way of telling the truth unless North Korea files an official report, since North Korea is totally isolated, and treats all matters associated with Kim as extreme secret. What is strange, the North Korean authority is not able to release any reaction to the press coverage around the world, no matter how detrimental to their “Supreme Leader.” The fact that they are not able to react to all the press coverage proves that there is a vacuum in the leadership. For this reason, I think Kim’s absolute power is on shaky grounds.
Kim Jong-un’s father Kim Jong-il had spent 80 days in sickbed due to a stroke in August 2008. At that time, the absence of Kim Jong-il’s directives produced a severe vacuum in the power structure, and the WPK, the military, and the executive department almost came to a stop. Likewise, any problem with Kim Jong-un’s health would precipitate a standstill in all areas of the government. No one can take his place right away.
Like most of the North Korean elites, I want a reasonable leader to step in after Kim Jong-un. His replacement should be one to adopt the policy of open reform for North Korea, as well as possessing an ability to resolve the issues concerning denuclearization and unification via dialogues.
What bothers me is that some people in South Korea and the media are clamoring that Kim Yo-jong or Kim Pyong-il should take over the helm if Kim Jong-un dies. Another Kim is not what North Korean people want. Why should the Kims always lead North Korea? Did they buy North Korea with money?
Yet another hereditary transfer of power would reinforce the false justification for the Kim monarch. Prolonging the Kim monarchy is nothing but a grave insult for those people who desire freedom from the Kim dictatorship. The dictatorship’s inhuman behavior for the past 75 years surpasses that of the Nazi holocaust. This is the reason why Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un have continued their isolation policies. They fear that open reform policies would expose all their crimes against humanity.
North Korea has a democratic electoral system like other countries, albeit in appearance only. The ruthless dictatorship by Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-un has led to the dynastic power transfer for the third time, building the foundation for the absolute monarchy. Therefore, barring a sudden crisis, it is highly likely that one of the Kim’s—more like Kim Yo-jong than Kim Pyong-il—would be crowned as a successor initially with someone in an advisory capacity overlooking her shoulder. Currently, Kim Yo-jong is at the core of the power structure as the Director of the Organizational Guidance Department, in control of the Party, the State Security Agency, as well as the Party’s Defense Commission. Like her brutal brother, she will try to secure her power base by purging her enemies, potential and latent, by force.
However, Kim Yo-jong lacks the justification and the traditional backing for the fourth hereditary succession of power, nor does she have a cadre to support her ascension to power. Kim Jong-un’s smooth succession was possible because of his father’s absolute power, accompanied by his aunt and his uncle’s role as his regents. But Kim Yo-jong does not have the absolute power to protect her back. Her traditional status as the Baekdu bloodline is fragile at best. Thus, she will attempt to maintain her power base with bloody fear politics.
If Kim Yo-jong views Kim Pyong-il as her latent enemy, she will purge him for sure. When her father, Kim Jong-il, became the official crown prince in 1974, he purged everyone associated with his stepmother labeling them as side branches. Especially, Jong-il saw his half-brother Pyong-il as his competitor for power and banished him, along with anyone associated with Pyong-il. All of Pyong-il’s friends, classmates, personal guards, and anyone who had been photographed with him were banished to the countryside or political camp. Subsequently, Pyong-il’s name completely disappeared from the political stage forty years ago. If anyone mentioned his name, they were subjected to punishment. Thus, it is safe to assume that Pyong-il has no allies in Pyongyang. Of course, he does know several individuals in the position of power such as Choe Ryong-hae, whose father was a partisan commando along with Kim Il-sung during the days of anti-Japan struggle. It is very doubtful that Choe would pledge his loyalty to powerless Kim Pyong-il. Instead, Choe and his contemporaries would try to seize power themselves.
Even if Kim Yo-jong succeeds in rising to power with the help of her regents, I think her regents will ultimately establish their own regime. The absolute power system of the Kim family will lower its curtain with the demise of the third dynastic succession.
Some people are assuming that the likes of Kim Yo-jong or Kim Pyong-il will take over the North Korean system in the event that Kim Jong-un dies. As I have mentioned earlier, this type of thinking is very wrong since it ends up bolstering false justification for Kim monarch’s existence. North Korea’s elites are incensed about Kim Jong-un’s cruel system featuring fear politics and relentless oppression. I think we should provide all our support and encourage the elites to make the right decision.
South Korea and the US should help the new leadership make wise choices and decisions. The new leadership can readily enter the international stage because he would be free of past crimes against humanity. The new leadership will be more amenable to dialogues regarding denuclearization and Korean unification. It will enable economic development and garner broad public support from the people of North Korea. Once stabilized, the new government will proceed to normalize relations with South Korea.
A notion that North Korea would become mired in a sudden turmoil during the transition of power precludes a proper understanding of North Korean people and the system. The North Korean system is sturdy, with the population tightly knitted organizationally. Even if Kim Jong-un died and a new leader emerged, society will not suffer confusion.
The international community can help the people of North Korea achieve their freedom by persuading the world leaders that the new leader must come from outside the Kim family. The voice of the world leaders together will encourage and energize the people of North Korea to seek ways to achieve their freedom and prosperity.
